嘿嘿视频

Deterrence for a Complex World

Blogs
Four armed men in green uniforms, helmets and goggles stand in front of a concrete fence.
Russian troops block the Ukrainian military base in Perevalne during its 2014 annexation of Crimea. 嘿嘿视频 political scientists have received a U.S. Department of Defense grant to study when deterrence works and why sometimes 鈥 like with Russia鈥檚 incursions into Ukraine 鈥 it fails. (Anton Holoborodko/CCBY-SA 3.0)

With heightened tensions among the most powerful countries, the world appears to be sliding into a new Cold War. But with terrorists, anti-government rebels and other non-state forces also threatening international security, is Cold War-style deterrence the best option for preventing conflicts?

The U.S. Department of Defense recently awarded a $1.35 million grant to a 嘿嘿视频-led team of political scientists to analyze when deterrence works and why it sometimes fails.

, an associate professor of political science, and two colleagues 鈥 , an assistant professor of political science at 嘿嘿视频, and , a political scientist at the University of Southern Mississippi 鈥 will examine classic deterrence models as well as theories and methods from network science to determine when government actions might deter violence and when they might instead have no effect or even provoke violence.

鈥淕overnments all over the world invest considerable resources to deter their enemies from acting against them,鈥 Tellez said. 鈥淵et, as recent events show, deterrence can fail.鈥

Kinne added: 鈥淩ussia鈥檚 surprising invasion of Ukraine is one striking example, but it鈥檚 not an isolated case. Increased aggression by China toward Taiwan, or Iran鈥檚 potential development of nuclear weapons, or waves of transnational attacks by Boko Haram in West Africa are all recent examples of actual or potential deterrence failure.鈥

During the 45-year Cold War that began after World War II, major powers like the United States and the Soviet Union invested massive resources in stockpiling nuclear arms for deterrence based on mutually assured destruction.

鈥淏ut the problem with Cold War models of deterrence is that they're largely limited to Cold War-like environments 鈥 that is, strategic competition between just two or three powerful countries,鈥 Kinne said. 鈥淐ontemporary world politics is much more complex than that. ... The lines between governmental and nongovernmental actors have grown increasingly blurry.鈥

Looking at global political networks

The study will analyze datasets of daily interactions of political actors around the world as well as social media data on high-profile political figures.

They will develop network models to organize these actors and their interactions into different network structures. Kinne said this approach will allow them to offer answers to such questions as:

  • If a government like Iran relies heavily on support from transnational extremist organizations, is that government more difficult to deter, or does its reliance on external groups make it more vulnerable?
  • Does domestic turmoil in a country like Russia deter the government from engaging in aggression against other countries, or incentivize it to drum up support by demonizing external adversaries?
  • When terrorist groups are themselves targets of deterrence, does support from sympathetic governments embolden those groups and lead to more extreme attacks, or does government support instead lead to restraint?

Using social sciences to improve world stability

Kinne and colleagues are among 11 faculty teams nationwide to receive funding in the Defense Department鈥檚 latest round of . The Initiative was launched by the Office of the Secretary of Defense in 2008 to support social science research aimed at improving basic understanding of international security.

This is Kinne鈥檚 third Minerva Research Initiative award. An expert on political violence, international cooperation and global security, he was a co-investigator on a to study how countries share the burdens of security alliances like NATO and a 2015 project examining the effects of wars, tariff increases and other shocks on social and political networks.

Tellez researches and teaches at 嘿嘿视频 on security, development and research methods. Iliev co-founded the Institute for Advanced Analytics and Security at the University of Mississippi and focuses his research on uncovering complex social and political dynamics.

Media Resources

Kathleen Holder is a content strategist in the 嘿嘿视频 College of Letters and Science, where this article was . 

Primary Category

Secondary Categories

Driven by Curiosity

Tags